The Official Box Office Thread

All the dirt. All the top secret stuff. Anything that has to do with the process of getting us to sit and watch something projected on the big screen.

The Official Box Office Thread

Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Wed Dec 14, 2005 5:39 pm

Here's an interesting article on new software being developed for predicting box office results.

http://tinyurl.com/atq84

Imagine a world where those criteria are plugged in and movies are greenlit based on the results! Scary.
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Postby EliCash on Wed Dec 14, 2005 5:51 pm

that's pretty ALF. those things dont work.
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Postby jgraphix on Wed Dec 14, 2005 5:51 pm

It's the beginning of the end.
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Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Wed Dec 14, 2005 5:56 pm

EliCash wrote:that's pretty ALF. those things dont work.


Or when they do, you end up with Ryan Reynolds in "Just Friends."
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Postby DorkmanScott on Wed Dec 14, 2005 6:01 pm

Here's a crazy thought, Hollywood. Instead of spending money on software and research and focus groups trying to figure out how to second-guess the audience of the future, why don't you spend that money on people who actually have some fucking talent for making movies? You know, get someone capable of writing a script to write a script, get people who can act, get someone who knows there's more to directing than pointing the camera and clicking it on. Make movies that are based on stories instead of spreadsheets.

I won't even patent that. You can have it free.
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Postby vicious_bastard on Wed Dec 14, 2005 6:38 pm

I'm confused. Would this mean a studio would put more or less money into the picture, 'knowing' it was going to be a success?
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Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Wed Dec 14, 2005 6:42 pm

I don't know. I'm guessing, if the program works, they'll plug and chug all kinds of numbers, seeing what stars the film succeed with, release dates, number of screens, etc. Maybe if Warners had this program for Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, they wouldn't have opened it so limited. I feel sorry for the good films that don't stand a chance at making any money and will never be greenlit, at least by studios.
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Postby DorkmanScott on Wed Dec 14, 2005 7:28 pm

vicious_bastard wrote:I'm confused. Would this mean a studio would put more or less money into the picture, 'knowing' it was going to be a success?

Hell no. It means that they'll assume a movie's success is a foregone conclusion and cut the budget down to whatever number gives them the best investment-profit ratio.
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Postby Shane on Wed Dec 14, 2005 8:35 pm

Any movie created due to this is destined to be the biggest pile of donkey shit ever.

Worse than Julia Roberts movies and worse than I know what you did last summer
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Postby vicious_bastard on Wed Dec 14, 2005 8:53 pm

DorkmanScott wrote:
vicious_bastard wrote:I'm confused. Would this mean a studio would put more or less money into the picture, 'knowing' it was going to be a success?

Hell no. It means that they'll assume a movie's success is a foregone conclusion and cut the budget down to whatever number gives them the best investment-profit ratio.


That's what I thought - no wonder the studio is remaining anonymous. It can only be bad for the public.
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Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:10 pm

IMDB says Kong will make $75million over the five day weekend, Drudge says the studio's predicting $110m. Any guesses? I'm leaning closer towards the later.
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Postby Koola on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:16 pm

Wow - this surprised me. BoxOfficeMojo just reported that KING KONG made 'only' 9,7 million dollars first wednesday!! (in North-America)

Isn't this WAAAYYY behind expectations?

My theater in Oslo was PACKED last night, and everyone loved the film. So I'm surprised.
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Postby Koola on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:17 pm

Hmm, I thought that hyperlink-stuff worked. Apparently it didn't my bad. Anyway, this is the link: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/
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Postby Alex DeLarge on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:18 pm

Just wait till the weekend, not many people, at least at my age(highschool) like to go see movies on week days.
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Postby havocSchultz on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:21 pm

meh... i don't enjoy boxofficemojo - i prefer guru - at least he does a write up expalining why and what and how the movie made that much money and what-not - he's supposed to have an update later today in regards to the first day or so of release - should be able to go into a little more in depth then...
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Postby Koola on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:24 pm

Well, I also track the Prophets, they write up and keep a very cool style on their analysis.
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Postby MelaWolf on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:26 pm

For people with jobs and/or in school (which is most of us), a 3 hour movie is tough to do on a weeknight.
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Postby Pudie on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:28 pm

You wure it's all of Wednesday?
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Postby Koola on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:28 pm

Hmm. Here it's more like: Finally an event of ANY kind!!! So we all flock to a huge 970 seat cinema in my neighbourhood, and it's packed, and joy everywhere. And yeah, the christmas holdiday has also set in. So I guess we have time.
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Postby Rindain on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:30 pm

For comparison, here are the opening Wednesday #'s for the 3 LOTR films:

Fellowship of the Ring: $18,214,211
The Two Towers: $26,159,972
Return of the King: $34,450,834
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Postby TheBaxter on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:36 pm

The expectations I've heard have been about $75mil for the first 5 days. So $10mil on Wednesday seems about right for that estimate. I don't think this is the kind of movie that gets people to rush out on a Wednesday night for, like a Star Wars or LOTR movie. To an AICN'er who hears the Kong-fetishizing and PJ-fetishizing that goes on there on a daily basis, you'd think this would be bigger than Spiderman, but to the average moviegoer it's a 3-hour long movie about a big monkey. I'll be waiting til Sunday, or maybe one night next week, to see it.
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Postby Koola on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:37 pm

TheBaxter; you've got a point.
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Postby DinoDeLaurentiis on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:38 pm

Just a the note, eh... Iffa you do go anna see a the movie, donna take a the bambinos, eh? It's a not like a the original Kong, eh?

Remember how when a you were a the bambino anna you parents, they took a you to a my Kong? Anna remember how uncomfortable they were when a the script, she make a the funny about a the "Deep Throat" anna Kong sees Jessie's boobies anna such?

Well they donna do that inna this a movie but HOLY CRAPPA those little bambinos gonna to be scared by alla sorts of a stuff, eh? Nightmares for a sure!

Listen to a your Uncle Dino anna do right by a the bambinos.
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Postby TheBaxter on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:40 pm

Also by comparison, Titanic opened to about $28mil in it's first weekend, and we all know how that turned out. If Kong is any good, people will go see it. Then again, Kong is no Leo DiCaprio.
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Postby JAGUART on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:41 pm

The Midnight Cleveland Premiere I went to Tuesday AM was only about 2/3 full, which was disappointing.

I was all set to wear a gorilla suit and carry a barbie doll, but decided against it because as I arrived the turnout was lame.
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Postby TheBaxter on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:42 pm

DinoDeLaurentiis wrote:Just a the note, eh... Iffa you do go anna see a the movie, donna take a the bambinos, eh? It's a not like a the original Kong, eh?

Remember how when a you were a the bambino anna you parents, they took a you to a my Kong? Anna remember how uncomfortable they were when a the script, she make a the funny about a the "Deep Throat" anna Kong sees Jessie's boobies anna such?

Well they donna do that inna this a movie but HOLY CRAPPA those little bambinos gonna to be scared by alla sorts of a stuff, eh? Nightmares for a sure!

Listen to a your Uncle Dino anna do right by a the bambinos.


I'm still traumatized by the scene of the guy getting flattened by Kong stepping on him. I can't walk anywhere without looking up every 10 steps or so to make sure there's not a giant foot about to squash me. Damn you Dino!
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Postby brainiac on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:43 pm

Excellent advice Dino.... the movie is scary and loud and long so give the kids and the audience - who didn't pay to hear your kids cry - a break and leave them with their nana.

Also, how do I find the Prophet and the Guru?
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Postby DinoDeLaurentiis on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:45 pm

That's a the good point, eh Brianiac? The sound inna the movie alone, she is enough a to give a the bambinos a the nightmares, eh?
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Postby burlivesleftnut on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:45 pm

I had read that many analysts predicted Kong was going to make less its opening weekend than Narnia.
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Postby MasterWhedon on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:47 pm

Please be careful about SPOILERS in here, as this is also a forum for folks who haven't seen the film yet. Unless the forum is clearly marked, it's just a common courtesy.

Please either clearly mark them, shrink them to tiny text or mark them in black like this, so people have to hit either the quote button, highlight or copy and paste to see.
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Postby burlivesleftnut on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:47 pm

DinoDeLaurentiis wrote:That's a the good point, eh Brianiac? The sound inna the movie alone, she is enough a to give a the bambinos a the nightmares, eh?


Holy crap... that one scream. Oh my.
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Postby El Scorcho on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:50 pm

Maybe I've been totally desensitized, but I didn't find anything scary at all. Besides the heights of the Empire State Building.
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Postby DinoDeLaurentiis on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:55 pm

MasterWhedon wrote:Please be careful about SPOILERS in here, as this is also a forum for folks who haven't seen the film yet. Unless the forum is clearly marked, it's just a common courtesy.


That's a the good point, MasterWhedon... but inna the case of a the Kong squashing the guy, I think a the poster was a referring to my Kong when a the Charlie Grodin, he get a his a, how you say? "comeuppance," eh?
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Postby MasterWhedon on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:58 pm

DinoDeLaurentiis wrote:That's a the good point, MasterWhedon... but inna the case of a the Kong squashing the guy, I think a the poster was a referring to my Kong when a the Charlie Grodin, he get a his a, how you say? "comeuppance," eh?

Still can't believe you cast Charles Grodin...



<shudder>
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Postby brainiac on Thu Dec 15, 2005 3:59 pm

I'm thinking many scenes are intense and scary for small children
-- not scary to mature and sophisticated adults like us. :lol:
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Postby austenandrews on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:05 pm

I haven't felt my skin crawl like it did in the ravine scene for a long time (unless you count when I rented Cannibal Holocaust in October).
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Postby TheBaxter on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:07 pm

DinoDeLaurentiis wrote:
MasterWhedon wrote:Please be careful about SPOILERS in here, as this is also a forum for folks who haven't seen the film yet. Unless the forum is clearly marked, it's just a common courtesy.


That's a the good point, MasterWhedon... but inna the case of a the Kong squashing the guy, I think a the poster was a referring to my Kong when a the Charlie Grodin, he get a his a, how you say? "comeuppance," eh?


Yes, I was, but I was trying to be thoughtful by not mentioning the name of the squashee. But looks like you've gone ahead and spoiled your own film. Damn you again, Dino!

BTW is there an expiration date for spoilers? We all know Bruce Willis is a ghost here, right?
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Postby MasterWhedon on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:08 pm

I spoke with Koola and he's down with making this the Official Box Office Thread, a place we can report in on a weekly basis about weekend tallies and such.

Please remember to keep it NON SPOILER territory!! Thanks!
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Postby havocSchultz on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:09 pm

TheBaxter wrote:
DinoDeLaurentiis wrote:
MasterWhedon wrote:Please be careful about SPOILERS in here, as this is also a forum for folks who haven't seen the film yet. Unless the forum is clearly marked, it's just a common courtesy.


That's a the good point, MasterWhedon... but inna the case of a the Kong squashing the guy, I think a the poster was a referring to my Kong when a the Charlie Grodin, he get a his a, how you say? "comeuppance," eh?


Yes, I was, but I was trying to be thoughtful by not mentioning the name of the squashee. But looks like you've gone ahead and spoiled your own film. Damn you again, Dino!

BTW is there an expiration date for spoilers? We all know Bruce Willis is a ghost here, right?


what - a ghost... dammit all to fuck...
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Postby Cineister Jim on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:10 pm

DAMN! Beat me to the Titanic comparison!

Monday will be a better sign...this could work like Titanic did, bulding an audience over several months, getting older people into the theater...or hell, it could flop hard!

I'm just sick of great movies getting passed over by audiences while diaper stains like Fantastic Four bank!
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Postby MasterWhedon on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:11 pm

TheBaxter wrote:BTW is there an expiration date for spoilers? We all know Bruce Willis is a ghost here, right?

I'd say keep major spoiler discussion to the thread for the specific movie review, where it can be clearly marked.

Again, I know it seems a little anal, but I'm sick of having a movie completely ruined for me in the TalkBacks. Thanks!
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Postby mraig on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:12 pm

They should just get the computer program to write, direct, and star in the movie too. I am so fucking sick of seeing movies made with human input. Humans are imperfect and make mistakes. Computers are perfect and better than humans. They should also have computers watch the movies. Humans sometimes can't understand the plot, or miss subtle things that the director puts in the frame. Computers can be programmed to see everything.

I would say that probably the only bad thing about computers is that they were invented by humans, which gives them certain inherent flaws. We should have the computers invent a kind of computer. I bet that kind would be perfect, and would be even better at writing, directing, and starring in movies.

In closing, I would just like to say Yay for computers.
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Postby TheBaxter on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:15 pm

havocSchultz wrote:
TheBaxter wrote:
DinoDeLaurentiis wrote:
MasterWhedon wrote:Please be careful about SPOILERS in here, as this is also a forum for folks who haven't seen the film yet. Unless the forum is clearly marked, it's just a common courtesy.


That's a the good point, MasterWhedon... but inna the case of a the Kong squashing the guy, I think a the poster was a referring to my Kong when a the Charlie Grodin, he get a his a, how you say? "comeuppance," eh?


Yes, I was, but I was trying to be thoughtful by not mentioning the name of the squashee. But looks like you've gone ahead and spoiled your own film. Damn you again, Dino!

BTW is there an expiration date for spoilers? We all know Bruce Willis is a ghost here, right?


what - a ghost... dammit all to fuck...


Yeah, kinda makes you see Die Hard in a whole new light, doesn't it?
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Postby havocSchultz on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:22 pm

TheBaxter wrote:
havocSchultz wrote:
TheBaxter wrote:
DinoDeLaurentiis wrote:
MasterWhedon wrote:Please be careful about SPOILERS in here, as this is also a forum for folks who haven't seen the film yet. Unless the forum is clearly marked, it's just a common courtesy.


That's a the good point, MasterWhedon... but inna the case of a the Kong squashing the guy, I think a the poster was a referring to my Kong when a the Charlie Grodin, he get a his a, how you say? "comeuppance," eh?


Yes, I was, but I was trying to be thoughtful by not mentioning the name of the squashee. But looks like you've gone ahead and spoiled your own film. Damn you again, Dino!

BTW is there an expiration date for spoilers? We all know Bruce Willis is a ghost here, right?


what - a ghost... dammit all to fuck...


Yeah, kinda makes you see Die Hard in a whole new light, doesn't it?


what - die hard - dammit all to fuck...
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Postby Koola on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:22 pm

About NON-spoiler-attitude.... MasterWhedon: Can you make Harry remove his MAJOR Brokeback Mountain-spoiler in his KING KONG-review...?
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Postby MasterWhedon on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:25 pm

Koola wrote:About NON-spoiler-attitude.... MasterWhedon: Can you make Grande Rojo remove his MAJOR Brokeback Mountain-spoiler in his KING KONG-review...?

Dude, I don't have THAT kind of power...
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Postby Koola on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:35 pm

Well - someone should. Heh. It's kind of like spoiling the end of Million Dollar Baby, which I'm ssoooooo happy noone spoiled me for.
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Postby El Scorcho on Thu Dec 15, 2005 4:43 pm

mraig wrote:They should just get the computer program to write, direct, and star in the movie too. I am so fucking sick of seeing movies made with human input. Humans are imperfect and make mistakes. Computers are perfect and better than humans. They should also have computers watch the movies. Humans sometimes can't understand the plot, or miss subtle things that the director puts in the frame. Computers can be programmed to see everything.

I would say that probably the only bad thing about computers is that they were invented by humans, which gives them certain inherent flaws. We should have the computers invent a kind of computer. I bet that kind would be perfect, and would be even better at writing, directing, and starring in movies.

In closing, I would just like to say Yay for computers.


ROFL!!!
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Postby Ribbons on Thu Dec 15, 2005 5:01 pm

KING KONG!
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Postby BobGobbler on Thu Dec 15, 2005 5:17 pm

Uh, it's pretty obvious that this is far below expectations.

This is a 3+ hour movie about a monkey. It was clear that Universal was worried about the box office when they started pumping out those ALF "romance" commercials. They are trying to draw in the romance buck that Titanic grabbed.

Nobody is going to flock to see a monkey fall in love with a chick, and Adrien Brody is not Leonardo DiCaprio. This movie will struggle to make back the ridiculous budget.
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