The Official Box Office Thread

All the dirt. All the top secret stuff. Anything that has to do with the process of getting us to sit and watch something projected on the big screen.

Postby wonkabar on Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:50 pm

Rindain wrote:For comparison, here are the opening Wednesday #'s for the 3 LOTR films:

Fellowship of the Ring: $18,214,211
The Two Towers: $26,159,972
Return of the King: $34,450,834

Those opened later in the month though. Universal fucked up by releasing so early
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Postby Chairman Kaga on Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:55 pm

I think something else comes into play with movies wherein people don't know what is going to happen and to avoid being spoiled they want to see it as soon as it is released. This is a factor for me on some movies released. In Kong's case who doesn't already know the story? Thus I think some people aren't in the same rush.
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Postby TheBaxter on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:01 pm

wonkabar wrote:
Rindain wrote:For comparison, here are the opening Wednesday #'s for the 3 LOTR films:

Fellowship of the Ring: $18,214,211
The Two Towers: $26,159,972
Return of the King: $34,450,834

Those opened later in the month though. Universal fucked up by releasing so early


Only if they're depending on the opening weekend grosses, which I don't think they are. By opening earlier, they'll get two big weekends (this one, and next one when it's Xmas) instead of one (because the weekend after xmas is new years weekend and that's usually a very slow weekend). Also, opening it up this weekend will give it time to generate word of mouth for the xmas break. Kids will be in school monday and the one's who have seen it this weekend will be able to talk about it and convince the one's who haven't seen it to go to it over their xmas break. If it opened next wednesday, there'd be a lot less kids who could see it before xmas break and tell their friends about it.
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Postby Cpt Kirks 2pay on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:04 pm

When this movie opens, I'll be on the opposite side of the road at the other theatre. Watching Lassie.
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Postby wonkabar on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:04 pm

Chairman Kaga wrote:I think something else comes into play with movies wherein people don't know what is going to happen and to avoid being spoiled they want to see it as soon as it is released. This is a factor for me on some movies released. In Kong's case who doesn't already know the story? Thus I think some people aren't in the same rush.

Of course you had that same issue with Titanic. But that didn't open real huge either...more like a steady stream of BO, which is probably what will happen with Kong. It doesn't really have much competition for the rest of the month and the kids have already seen Potter and Narnia.
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Postby Cpt Kirks 2pay on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:05 pm

HUUUUUURRRRRRLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Postby havocSchultz on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:06 pm

In its second day of release, King Kong grossed $6.3M to boost its two-day cume to $16.1M. That's only about a drop of 35% from its opening day tally of $9.8M. The second day decline was smaller than the LOTR films which also debuted on Wednesdays in mid-December. Wednesday-to-Thursday drops for the Hobbit flicks were 45% for The Fellowship of the Ring in 2001, 47% for The Two Towers in 2002, and 51% for The Return of the King in 2003. So it is holding up a little better - which is a good sign most people are holding out till the weekend...
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Postby wonkabar on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:08 pm

It will go up tonight
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Postby Gheorghe Zamfir on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:09 pm

It'd be tough for it to go down. I didn't realize Wednesday openings dropped on Thursdays though, interesting pattern.
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Postby wonkabar on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:11 pm

Survivor-night
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Postby Adam Balm on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:12 pm

So, about a $50M weekend then, am I right?
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Postby havocSchultz on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:12 pm

roughly - the way it's tracking - to be able to make it to the hoped for weekend gross of $75 mill (i think kind of what universal was hoping for) - it will need to make about $59 mill from fri-sun - not unheard of - seeing as how narnia made about $67 mil fri-sun last weekend - so it should be okay - the friday/saturday night numbers will be the best to go by - but it'll actually be next weekend that will really guage how it will do...
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Postby Adam Balm on Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:18 pm

Am I remembering it wrong that in 5 day weekend openings, the friday numbers are usually close to the wednesday numbers? I remember this being the case with BB....
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Postby wonkabar on Fri Dec 16, 2005 10:01 pm

Dude, it's fallen behind Narnia
http://boxofficemojo.com/
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Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Fri Dec 16, 2005 11:00 pm

wonkabar wrote:Dude, it's fallen behind Narnia
http://boxofficemojo.com/


that's a little misleading. The only reason Narnia has is higher is because of it's five day head start. Kong outgrossed Narnia on both Wednesday and Thursday, and I'm sure will everyday for the rest of it's run.
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Postby BobGobbler on Fri Dec 16, 2005 11:49 pm

I see the apologists are already out. This is a huge box office disappointment. This is going to struggle to hit 50 million this weekend, and it's not going to do any better the following weekend. You are looking at 80 million the first two weeks IF a miracle happens and the box office drop is less than 40%.

This "word of mouth" you are talking about just doesn't exist for this movie. It's too long, and it just isn't interesting to a lot of people.
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Postby BobGobbler on Fri Dec 16, 2005 11:53 pm

One more thing to fan the flames: Narnia <i>increased</i> from Wednesday to Thursday. That is not a good sign for Kong at all.
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Postby wonkabar on Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:09 am

Peter, is that you? Shame on you
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Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:10 am

amusing that Kong hasn't even had it's first weekend yet and it's already a bomb. Things have reallly changed these past 8 years. Titanic made $29m it's opening weekend. If Kong makes that much from Friday to Sunday, it will be considered a bomb. Patience. Give it time. You've seen the film, you know it's good.

Dino, can you chime in here with your take on all of this?
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Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:11 am

oh wait, I totally missed Bob's signature before. It really gives more context to his posts.

btw, call me petty for making such a comparison but Kong made more on Wednesday then Requiem made globally in it's entire run.
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Postby Adam Balm on Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:15 am

Bob, sounds like you could use a huuuuuugg.....

Come here you!


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Postby BobGobbler on Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:19 am

Pops Freshenmeyer wrote:amusing that Kong hasn't even had it's first weekend yet and it's already a bomb. Things have reallly changed these past 8 years. Titanic made $29m it's opening weekend. If Kong makes that much from Friday to Sunday, it will be considered a bomb. Patience. Give it time. You've seen the film, you know it's good.

Dino, can you chime in here with your take on all of this?


If you can show me where Leonardo DiCaprio appears on screen, point to more than a handful of women in the audience of the average Kong theater, or tell me what famous diva is singing the chart-topping theme of King Kong, I'll start to think that maybe this movie has legs like Titanic.

Since you can't, it doesn't.

Listen, no director should get 207 million dollars to blow on a bizarre obsession. Hopefully this will keep Hollywood from wasting this much cash again. Restricting money often makes a better product. A 2 hour Kong would have been a much better box office draw.
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Postby Adam Balm on Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:23 am

BobGobbler wrote:
If you can show me where Leonardo DiCaprio appears on screen, point to more than a handful of women in the audience of the average Kong theater, or tell me what famous diva is singing the chart-topping theme of King Kong....


See, you haven't even heard Kong's lovely singing voice. But that was before he started shitting away his talent on smack and before his ugly break up with Bobby Brown....
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Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:41 am

he makes a valid point. What this movie needed was Celion Dion.

Okay, anyone feel like making some Friday predictions? $11m. If a 3 hour movie can make $9m on a Wednesday night, I think it'll do nicely tonight. Of course, I'm just pulling that $11m figure out of my ass...oh wait...ugh...ugh...$11.3
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Postby Chairman Kaga on Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:51 am

BobGobbler wrote:
Listen, no director should get 207 million dollars to blow on a bizarre obsession. Hopefully this will keep Hollywood from wasting this much cash again. Restricting money often makes a better product. A 2 hour Kong would have been a much better box office draw.

Yeah you're right no director should be allowed to make something good. The only prerequisite is that is fits into 120 minutes...quantity over quality :roll:
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Postby BobGobbler on Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:33 am

Here is some more research:

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=godz illa.htm

Looking VERY similar, with good reason. A remake of a geeky cult classic that nobody asked for with a less than desirable male lead.

At least it isn't looking like http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=mightyjoeyoung .htm
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Postby Adam Balm on Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:41 am

Gobstopper, you're way off base. Godzilla cost 130 million to make, Kong cost 207 million. There's no comparison. So stop calling this a flop.
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Postby Shane on Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:44 am

That ammount though is damn risky.

It just shows how much faith they have in Jackson.

He should be honored tobe given the chance.

I mean the guy really wanted this and I loved his early shit, and thought if anyone deserved that kind of faith from major studios it would be him.

Bad Taste is still my favorite Jackson Film.
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Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:46 am

Bob, I don't think you want Kong to be another Godzilla because that movie actually made it's money back, according to your link.
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Postby Shane on Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:49 am

why do you want this to fail so badly?
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Postby WilliamMcGuire on Sat Dec 17, 2005 2:56 am

Pops Freshenmeyer wrote:Bob, I don't think you want Kong to be another Godzilla because that movie actually made it's money back, according to your link.


As a tentpole flick for SONY GODZILLA was a massive disapointment.

And that was with a little more than half the budget of KING KONG.
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Postby freak2thec0re on Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:11 am

I work at the big AMC theatre in Times Square, and last night King Kong was by far the biggest Friday night I've ever seen. We had it showing in seven theaters, it sold out every single show, which caused the theatre to add another 12:20 AM show . . . which quickly sold out, causing them to add yet another show at 1am . . . which was packed. Great news for Kong, bad news for me, who had to stay an extra hour later due to the extra shows.

If our king kong business last night was any indication at all, I can't imagine this having a less-than-stellar weekend
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Postby DinoDeLaurentiis on Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:07 am

C'mon BobGobbler... you really a the MovieMack from a the main AICN talk-a-backs, no?
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Postby DinoDeLaurentiis on Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:10 am

Onna second thought... I think a you must a be Uwe Boll...
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Postby DinoDeLaurentiis on Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:10 am

No wait... maybe you Jimmy Cameron? Yes... I sense a the Sour Grapes, no?
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Postby Agent Alonzo on Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:14 am

So how did Dino's Kong do on its opening weekend?
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Postby DinoDeLaurentiis on Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:18 am

I donna remember a the opening weekend, eh? It was a huge I think, but I was a onna the grappa celebration bender alla weekend anna it's like a the blur, eh?

Inna the end, I think a she make back like a the 3 times a the budget, eh?
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Postby Agent Alonzo on Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:25 am

Man, I am surprised it even covered the hair care products cost for Grodin's 'tache...

Speaking of which, I can't believe Grodin is 70...
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Postby TheButcher on Sat Dec 17, 2005 8:34 am

I can't believe he's 70 either.
Did he ever marry Miss Piggy?
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The Official Box Office Thread ("Kong Box Office")

Postby bastard_robo on Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:36 am

I work at a small theater in Orange County CA... We had a midnight show and only had 40 people (compared to 200) ((Which is our financially secure with corporate-sponsored opinions)) in Star Wars and 135 with Harry Potter. And i've been going on and on about this movie to my boss... who now probalby hates me for pushing him to get it (he wanted to get Cheeper by the Dozen 2, becasue the first one, for how shitty it was, made an assload of cash for us..which seems to be a trend at my place, the more of an assfamily film it is, the better we do.. We have fucking retards comeing into this place i swear))

And the last 2 days havent done much better. I think the moving going public, from what i have seen not only at my place but all around, has become over fed retards who dont know what they want...
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Re: The Official Box Office Thread ("Kong Box Office&qu

Postby bastard_robo on Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:39 am

bastard_robo wrote:I work at a small theater in Orange County CA... We had a midnight show and only had 40 people (compared to 200) ((Which is our financially secure with corporate sponsored opinions)) in Star Wars and 135 with Grande Rojo Potter. And i've been going on and on about this movie to my boss... who now probalby hates me for pushing him to get it (he wanted to get Cheeper by the Dozen 2, becasue the first one, for how shitty it was, made an assload of cash for us..which seems to be a trend at my place, the more of an assfamily film it is, the better we do.. We have fucking retards comeing into this place i swear))

And the last 2 days havent done much better. I think the moving going public, from what i have seen not only at my place but all around, has become over fed retards who dont know what they want...


Um.. for some reason, where "Financially secure with corporate sponsored opnions" is, its suppose to say "Is our financially secure with corporate-sponsored opinions" and Grande Rojo is suppos to say Harry...

Thats what i typped, but thats not what came out... so now you get a better idea of what i was saying.
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The Official Box Office Thread ("Kong Box Office")

Postby bastard_robo on Sat Dec 17, 2005 9:43 am

some one else spell Sell out as one word.. and then spell H A R R Y as one word.... so that i can see if im not crazy.






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Postby burlivesleftnut on Sat Dec 17, 2005 10:02 am

Yes there are word replacements afoot. Don't let it distract you from your message.
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Postby ZombieZoneSolutions on Sat Dec 17, 2005 10:27 am

calling Kong a bomb seems a bit drastic, no?

but i also think that it crippling length and overdone premise are huge obstacles to it's success.

my guess is that its gonna do just fine and make great big fistfulls of cash, but Narnia is going to beat it.

maybe Jackson will take the hint next time and try to keep his next film at thin and trim 90 minutes to 2 hours tops? less is more, baby!
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Postby havocSchultz on Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:40 am

Pops Freshenmeyer wrote:he makes a valid point. What this movie needed was Celion Dion.


no movie - no radio - no person needs celine dion... unless she was one of those guys getting stomped on by kong - then i could see that - he'd probably get a foot infection or something... America can keep you CELINE...!!! you studly gentleman.... :) j/k... i was actually so wrapped in this word replacement thing that initially i wrote out "studly gentleman" and not f a t whatchyamacallit... oh well... i think if someone writes out the actually words - the ones that are coming up as replacements - they should then be changed to something completely different again... then i couldn't call myself s t u d l y all the time...
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Postby BobGobbler on Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:40 am

I'm not calling it a bomb, and I didn't throughout the thread.

If this financial trend continues, it HAS to be called a huge disappointment, if not a flop. It will make some cash for sure, but the studio was clearly expecting this film to launch them into the black for the year, and that's just not going to happen.
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Re: The Official Box Office Thread ("Kong Box Office&am

Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:40 am

bastard_robo wrote:And i've been going on and on about this movie to my boss... who now probalby hates me for pushing him to get it (he wanted to get Cheeper by the Dozen 2


If your boss had to be talked into getting Kong over Dozen 2, he has no place in the exhibition industry. Sorry to hear of it's mediocre performance. Sounds more like a town population thingy as that Times Square AMC kept selling out last night.

For those that see this as a bomb, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised. I'm sure it'll make it's money back domestically, not to even mention how much it'll make overseas. If it wasn't such a highly budgeted tentpole flick, $9m on a Wednesday and $6m on Thursday are good numbers, especially if you're PG-13 movie is over three hours long.

I think what the Saturday morning Nostradamuses are forgetting that the picture's length is a major factor why this film will succeed more over the long run than on it's opening weekend. Let's at least wait until Monday morning.
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Re: The Official Box Office Thread ("Kong Box Office&qu

Postby BobGobbler on Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:53 am

bastard_robo wrote:I think the moving going public, from what i have seen not only at my place but all around, has become over fed retards who dont know what they want...


They do know what they want at Christmas time: a funny and safe family film. As wrong as they are, that's the truth.

Don't you think Kong would have done better as an early summer movie? Perhaps 2 or 3 weeks after ROTS? I'm not sure what was behind the December release... it worked well for LOTR, but this is very much a summer popcorn movie stuck in the middle of winter, unlike LOTR.
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Re: The Official Box Office Thread ("Kong Box Office&am

Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:07 pm

BobGobbler wrote:Don't you think Kong would have done better as an early summer movie? Perhaps 2 or 3 weeks after ROTS?


Definitely not. Moviegoers like their films to be finished. The score wasn't even complete until last month. Maybe next summer but then it'd be up against Supes, X3 and DaVinci.

A good example of a horrible weekend slot is Zathura, one week after Chicken Little, one week before Hairy Potter. That killed that movie.
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Postby Pops Freshenmeyer on Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:59 pm

Pops Freshenmeyer wrote:he makes a valid point. What this movie needed was Celion Dion.

Okay, anyone feel like making some Friday predictions? $11m. If a 3 hour movie can make $9m on a Wednesday night, I think it'll do nicely tonight. Of course, I'm just pulling that $11m figure out of my ass...oh wait...ugh...ugh...$11.3


Looks like I was off by $3m. Kong made $14.2m yesterday. I have more confidence in making my next prediction.

Bob will think this new figure spells doom for the movie.
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