W0W!1! SCIENC3!1! Blu-Ray FTW!

Betamax and beyond

How will you be watching movies in the future?

DVD?
8
11%
HD-DVD?
10
13%
Blu-Ray?
38
51%
EVD?
1
1%
Holographic Optical Recording Technology?
3
4%
OLDSCHOOL BABY! Betamax/VHS?
2
3%
Projected onto your eyelids by your new 3D magic-movie eye?
2
3%
In the gorram CINEMA, all this tech costs tooo much........
11
15%
 
Total votes : 75

Postby Tyrone_Shoelaces on Mon Feb 18, 2008 3:58 am

If you look around you can find the Sharp Aquos BDHP20U in the $315 range.
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Postby Peven on Mon Feb 18, 2008 1:35 pm

if you are a Blu Ray maker/distributor what cause do you have to lower prices? this is a big loss for the consumers, especially since it is Sony as the winning corporation.
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Postby stereosforgeeks on Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:10 pm

Peven wrote:if you are a Blu Ray maker/distributor what cause do you have to lower prices? this is a big loss for the consumers, especially since it is Sony as the winning corporation.


Well the more you make the lower cost becomes so as it gains traction it will mean lower prices for the consumer.

How can this be a loss for the consumer? Seriously having two rival formats which slowed adoption was a win? Ohh yeah maybe it was that neither format could give you all the movies you wanted? :roll:
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Postby Hollywood_Bob on Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:00 pm

Peven wrote:if you are a Blu Ray maker/distributor what cause do you have to lower prices? this is a big loss for the consumers, especially since it is Sony as the winning corporation.


The studios will. They will wrk with and sometimes pressure the the hardware developers to issue cheaper hardware so that they can make a mint selling the discs.

Not to mention the competition that will arise from all of the 3rd party hardware makers. The blu-ray technology is not a big secret. It is only a matter of months before DVD player manufacturers start pumping out lower costing players. It will be up to the consumer to either purchase the BMW or the Ford Festiva of HD players.
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Postby Evil Hobbit on Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:58 am

It's official now:

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Toshiba/Toshiba_Officially_Drops_HD_DVD/1477

[quote]
“We carefully assessed the long-term impact of continuing the so-called 'next-generation format war' and concluded that a swift decision will best help the market develop,â€
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Postby RogueScribner on Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:12 am

Yay.

Now hopefully Sony doesn't screw everyone over and make everything proprietary!
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Postby AtomicHyperbole on Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:44 am

Blu-ray is a consortium, it's not just Sony. So that's highly unlikely. I believe it was also settled on before Toshiba introduced their format, so it was ol' Tosh-y that through everything up in the air.

Have to say though, the unchecked and unfettered Sony fanboyism in these forums makes me feel a bit queasy...
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Postby Peven on Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:52 am

stereosforgeeks wrote:
Peven wrote:if you are a Blu Ray maker/distributor what cause do you have to lower prices? this is a big loss for the consumers, especially since it is Sony as the winning corporation.


Well the more you make the lower cost becomes so as it gains traction it will mean lower prices for the consumer.

How can this be a loss for the consumer? Seriously having two rival formats which slowed adoption was a win? Ohh yeah maybe it was that neither format could give you all the movies you wanted? :roll:


this format "war" was not won because of product superiority, according to the engineer interviewed on NPR this morning Hi-Def is the more "mature, consumer ready" product, but because of financial wheeling and dealing. don't tell me that Sony isn't the big winner, either. you pro-Sony folks are happy, i know, and after getting their ass handed to them by Nintendo and Microsoft in the game market Sony needed some sort of success like this. talk all you want about prices lowering, but consider this, even when they had the competition of Hi-Def Blue Ray was more expensive. overpriced, like anything else connected with Sony.
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Postby stereosforgeeks on Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:21 am

Peven wrote:
stereosforgeeks wrote:
Peven wrote:if you are a Blu Ray maker/distributor what cause do you have to lower prices? this is a big loss for the consumers, especially since it is Sony as the winning corporation.


Well the more you make the lower cost becomes so as it gains traction it will mean lower prices for the consumer.

How can this be a loss for the consumer? Seriously having two rival formats which slowed adoption was a win? Ohh yeah maybe it was that neither format could give you all the movies you wanted? :roll:


this format "war" was not won because of product superiority, according to the engineer interviewed on NPR this morning Hi-Def is the more "mature, consumer ready" product, but because of financial wheeling and dealing. don't tell me that Sony isn't the big winner, either. you pro-Sony folks are happy, i know, and after getting their ass handed to them by Nintendo and Microsoft in the game market Sony needed some sort of success like this. talk all you want about prices lowering, but consider this, even when they had the competition of Hi-Def Blue Ray was more expensive. overpriced, like anything else connected with Sony.


What the "expert" meant to say was HD-DVD was easier to produce. There is very little difference between them technically except BluRay has a larger capacity, which could mean superior sound and audio.

Also, I don't really think you read what I said. What I was saying was once more people start buying BluRay, which is inevitable as the war is over the cost will come down as it does with every consumer electronics product.

People seem to think BluRay is all Sony, but as stated it's a group of companies about the same amount that made HD-DVD actually. Sony wasn't even the first one to have a BluRay player on the market. That was Samsung. Also, now that the war is over other companies will throw their products in the match and will drive competition on one format not two. Toshiba and other HD-DVD manufacturers weren't lolwering their prices because their costs were low but rather because they were loosing and needed to gain momentum somehow.
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Postby ThisIsTheGirl on Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:23 am

Peven wrote:if you are a Blu Ray maker/distributor what cause do you have to lower prices? this is a big loss for the consumers, especially since it is Sony as the winning corporation.


This is a simple misconception of how manufacturing and retail actually works. You go to a factory and ask them to make 5 Blu-Ray players for you. Each player will cost a helluva lot of money, for the simple reason that the factory can only buy the materials needed to make a small number of BD players. So let's say for the sake of argument that in this scenario, they charge you $500 for each player. You go to the same factory and ask them to make you 1 million BD players. Well, now the factory can buy the materials for much less, thus significantly increasing their profit margin. There is no longer any need for them to charge you $500 per player. Maybe now, they'll only charge $200 instead. These savings (eventually) get passed on to the consumer.

Look at it a different way, Pev: at the moment, DVD rules the roost. As far as mainstream consumers go, it doesn't really have any rivals (by this I mean that there isn't some other format, like UMD, which is seriously threatening DVD's supremacy). When I first started buying DVDs, you couldn't find many for under £10. Now, I can go out and buy movies that are less than 2 years old for £2 on sale at HMV. This is possible because DVD is the dominant format, not in spite of that fact.

Another thing:

Atomic wrote:Blu-ray is a consortium, it's not just Sony. So that's highly unlikely. I believe it was also settled on before Toshiba introduced their format, so it was ol' Tosh-y that through everything up in the air.

Have to say though, the unchecked and unfettered Sony fanboyism in these forums makes me feel a bit queasy...



...what he said.

(although, I don't see the Sony support here as "fanboyism" - I see it as a group of early adopters who are quite rightly pleased that they didn't waste several hundred pounds/dollars on a soon-to-be-redundant format. I'll see you boys in April! :wink:)
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Postby stereosforgeeks on Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:39 am

Thanks TITG. You stated it much better than I did.
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Postby AtomicHyperbole on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:34 am

ThisIsTheGirl wrote:(although, I don't see the Sony support here as "fanboyism" - I see it as a group of early adopters who are quite rightly pleased that they didn't waste several hundred pounds/dollars on a soon-to-be-redundant format. I'll see you boys in April! :wink:)


I thought they were buying a games machine? :wink:
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Postby Nordling on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:34 am

Yeah, that's primarily the reason why I'm happy. I want to justify my PS3 purchase, and it seems like I have.

I'm just excited for myself when I get my kickass TV this summer. It'll be the last time for a loooong time I'll get away with spending that kind of money on myself.
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Postby Nordling on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:35 am

AtomicHyperbole wrote:
ThisIsTheGirl wrote:(although, I don't see the Sony support here as "fanboyism" - I see it as a group of early adopters who are quite rightly pleased that they didn't waste several hundred pounds/dollars on a soon-to-be-redundant format. I'll see you boys in April! :wink:)


I thought they were buying a games machine? :wink:


If you're going to buy a Blu-Ray player at this time, no question, the best possible purchase is a PS3. No frustrating firmware upgrades, and it's cheaper than many of the other models.
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Postby AtomicHyperbole on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:37 am

Why do you want to justify it? You bought a PS3. It's going to be of a standard! Even if BR had bit the big one it'd still be an excellent DVD upscaler and games machine. Games first, BR second - although, well, it would be if there were actually any decent, cheap, BR players other than the PS3, of course.

BTW it's amusing that HD DVD has suddenly become so popular. Everyone's snaffling up what titles there are and the hardware's already reduced from the £200 mark down to £77 on Amazon. Within a DAY!
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Postby AtomicHyperbole on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:39 am

Nordling wrote:
AtomicHyperbole wrote:
ThisIsTheGirl wrote:(although, I don't see the Sony support here as "fanboyism" - I see it as a group of early adopters who are quite rightly pleased that they didn't waste several hundred pounds/dollars on a soon-to-be-redundant format. I'll see you boys in April! :wink:)


I thought they were buying a games machine? :wink:


If you're going to buy a Blu-Ray player at this time, no question, the best possible purchase is a PS3. No frustrating firmware upgrades, and it's cheaper than many of the other models.


Oh, when I can afford it I'll get one. Believe me. Yum.

Shame the b/c's been fucked around with though. Grr.
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Postby stereosforgeeks on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:40 am

AtomicHyperbole wrote:BTW it's amusing that HD DVD has suddenly become so popular. Everyone's snaffling up what titles there are and the hardware's already reduced from the £200 mark down to £77 on Amazon. Within a DAY!


Seems to be a waste of money. You know they will have the BluRay equivalent titles soon.
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Postby Chairman Kaga on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:42 am

I thought PS3's did have firmware updates...
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Postby stereosforgeeks on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:43 am

Chairman Kaga wrote:I thought PS3's did have firmware updates...


I think he meant that they are really easy when you have it connected to the internet.
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Postby Evil Hobbit on Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:08 pm

Universal goes Blu!

"The path for widespread adoption of the next-generation platform has finally become clear. Universal will continue its aggressive efforts to broaden awareness for hi-def’s unparalleled offerings in interactivity and connectivity, at an increasingly affordable price. The emergence of a single, high-definition format is cause for consumers, as well as the entire entertainment industry, to celebrate. While Universal values the close partnership we have shared with Toshiba, it is time to turn our focus to releasing new and catalog titles on Blu-ray."


Bring on the Fuzz!
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Postby TheBaxter on Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:54 pm

you know, paramount really made out like bandits on this. all they had to do was stop making bluray discs for a few months, and they got millions of dollars in return. and now, they can go right back to making bluray discs, and pocket all that cash.
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Postby Tyrone_Shoelaces on Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:12 pm

I bet they still have Blu-rays of Blades of Glory still sitting in a warehouse somewhere.
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Postby Nordling on Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:46 pm

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Postby stereosforgeeks on Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:50 pm

Wow that was quick!
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Postby Nordling on Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:51 pm

I bet that was to stop the stampede.

Oh well, if you have a Half-Price Books in your area, go there. They'll take anything. They still have laserdisc racks, for fuck's sake.
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Postby AtomicHyperbole on Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:12 pm

stereosforgeeks wrote:
AtomicHyperbole wrote:BTW it's amusing that HD DVD has suddenly become so popular. Everyone's snaffling up what titles there are and the hardware's already reduced from the £200 mark down to £77 on Amazon. Within a DAY!


Seems to be a waste of money. You know they will have the BluRay equivalent titles soon.


Not at all, if you're a collector. This is an officially deceased, dead as a dodo format now. It'll have some worth eventually. It's not like betamax that kept going behind the scenes, or any other format that somehow got enough of an innings to keep going for years (ie minidisc), but something that's just kaput.

A footnote in history, if you will. Besides, once you own those movies you want in HD even if the player is old, you got them.
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Postby stereosforgeeks on Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:22 pm

AtomicHyperbole wrote:
stereosforgeeks wrote:
AtomicHyperbole wrote:BTW it's amusing that HD DVD has suddenly become so popular. Everyone's snaffling up what titles there are and the hardware's already reduced from the £200 mark down to £77 on Amazon. Within a DAY!


Seems to be a waste of money. You know they will have the BluRay equivalent titles soon.


Not at all, if you're a collector. This is an officially deceased, dead as a dodo format now. It'll have some worth eventually. It's not like betamax that kept going behind the scenes, or any other format that somehow got enough of an innings to keep going for years (ie minidisc), but something that's just kaput.

A footnote in history, if you will. Besides, once you own those movies you want in HD even if the player is old, you got them.


Yeah I suppose. I guess I just have too many inputs as it is and don't need/want 2 HD players.
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Postby Simon Quinlank on Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:57 pm

How long do you think Blu-Ray will last?

I still don't think the ceasing of the format war will do much to increase take-up of HD discs but that significant a margin.
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Postby Fievel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:39 pm

There has to be a bridge between standard def and direct downloads. I think Blu-Ray will fill that need.
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Postby Nordling on Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:56 pm

I'm still of the strong opinion that physical media isn't going anywhere, especially if studios insist on charging everytime a movie gets played, which it looks like may be happening. HD downloads with a permanent save on a hard drive, which by the way will have to be huge if you're a film fan and you want to have a decent collection, are 5 years away at best. I think studios better learn something from the music industry quick on that one.
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Postby King Psyz on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:00 pm

5 years is mighty optimistic... considering America still has people using dial up to access the internet there's not a ice cubes chance in hell of direct digital downloads being a viable "format" solution for a long long time.

And Amercia is just speaking from personal knowledge, I would venture a guess that many other places have just as bad of internet services.

Korea and parts of China and Japan are the only ones even close to being prepared for streaming 20gb movies.

Because HDTV is only going to se wider and wider adoption in the next few years and why would you bypass BD in 1080p (or higher, plenty of room to grow with 52+gb of space and upgradable firmware) for SD downloads you don't sctually own?

It makes little to know sense when you really break it down in day to day usage. It's not economical or consumer friendly. The only benifit it has is being "green" But the info has to be stored on something, so there will always be some kind of physical format.
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Postby stereosforgeeks on Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:01 pm

Honestly the US's internet infrastructure is nowhere near fast enough to handle that bandwidth yet. Japan Korea sure. Here not so much.
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Postby TheBaxter on Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:02 am

i got a crash course (literally) today in why physical media will never go away. my hard drive with all my music on it crashed today. dead. kaput. all my music files are gone. thankfully, i don't buy anything off of itunes, or i'd be fux0r3d. there are some, uh, "borrowed" mp3s on there that are gone forever, but everything i've ever bought is on CD, so while it will be a pain in the ass to re-rip them all, at least i can still get them back without having to pay for them all over again.

as for BD overtaking DVD, it won't happen for a while, but it will eventually happen. i'm glad BD won the format war, but make no mistake, it wasn't the consumer's who chose, it was the industry. and they will choose BD over DVD in the long run too, because it's another opportunity for them to make more money. if you look at how these companies are behaving, it's clear they will have no problem forcing BD on the masses, whether the masses want it or care about it or not. first, they'll make BD players less and less expensive until they cost about the same as DVD players. then they'll stop making DVD players, because why would anyone pay for a basic DVD player when they can get a BD player at the same cost and which still plays all your DVDs. then, as BD player ownership grows, the studios will shift to more BD discs and fewer DVDs. it won't happen nearly as fast as the transition from vinyl/cassette to CD, or VHS to DVD, because of the huge ownership base of DVD already; but it will happen eventually.
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Postby Fievel on Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:09 am

The best part for consumers is that BD players will play standard DVDs. That's a big score for consumers versus the VHS to DVD switch.
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Postby Peven on Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:19 am

AtomicHyperbole wrote:
Nordling wrote:
AtomicHyperbole wrote:
ThisIsTheGirl wrote:(although, I don't see the Sony support here as "fanboyism" - I see it as a group of early adopters who are quite rightly pleased that they didn't waste several hundred pounds/dollars on a soon-to-be-redundant format. I'll see you boys in April! :wink:)


I thought they were buying a games machine? :wink:


If you're going to buy a Blu-Ray player at this time, no question, the best possible purchase is a PS3. No frustrating firmware upgrades, and it's cheaper than many of the other models.


Oh, when I can afford it I'll get one. Believe me. Yum.

Shame the b/c's been fucked around with though. Grr.


one BIG reason why Sony is the big winner here. they are in desperate need of a reason for people to buy their PS3 and this hands it to them. i have not invested a dime in any next generation hardware, so its not like i am a Hi Def owner feeling screwed. in fact, i may even go out and buy a Hi Def player now and grab up all the bargain basement Hi Def titles i can.

i admit i despise Sony, as someone who dumped hundreds, probably thousands, of dollars into their overpriced shit in my 20's only to have it underperform, with Sony's customer support non-existant. ever heard of "Sony only"?, meaning it was impossible to get any sort of cable or battery or any other part or accessory without having to go through Sony and pay through the nose. since then i have learned to spend my money on other companies' products and i have found i get much more out of my money.

i can download Hi-Def movies on my 360 now already and my dvd player does a pretty good job with upscaling, and i own a 47" hi-def too, so i see no reason to shell out $300+ just so i can then pay more for each movie i want.
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Postby TheBaxter on Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:36 am

ok, BluRay is great. high definition, more detail, more contrast, brighter colors, enhanced sound, cool extra features, and all that... but can it save your life?
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Postby King Psyz on Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:26 pm

TheBaxter wrote:ok, BluRay is great. high definition, more detail, more contrast, brighter colors, enhanced sound, cool extra features, and all that... but can it save your life?


Actually, yes yes it can. In a roundabout kinda way...
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Postby Chairman Kaga on Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:10 pm

TheBaxter wrote:it won't happen nearly as fast as the transition from vinyl/cassette to CD, or VHS to DVD, because of the huge ownership base of DVD already; but it will happen eventually.

I agree with everything you said but this. Both of those format changes were very long. Much longer than I think Blu-Ray will take to usurp standard DVD.
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Postby King Psyz on Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:36 pm

Well the thing is, DVD wasn't backwards compatible with people's VHS collections. But BD is.

This could be the lynchpin factor that gets these in the fast track to wider adoption rates. Keeping in mind many more people are starting to upgrade to HDTV as well.

With more games out over this next year and by Christmas this winter could see a large spike in BD software sales attached to PS3 sales. This will get the other BD manufacuters to cut prices to compete.
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Postby Nordling on Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:46 pm

I think Blu-Ray will catch on, but if prices stay the same I don't see people buying the titles in droves unless it's something big like GONE WITH THE WIND, the STAR WARS films, LORD OF THE RINGS, LAWRENCE OF ARABIA... something that shows off their TV and makes it worth it. You're not going to rush out and buy FOUR WEEDINGS AND A FUNERAL on Blu-Ray.

In a way, this concerns me because if the little movies were being squashed out before then it'll definitely happen now. They announced JUNO on Blu-Ray today, and while I love JUNO, I see no reason at all to buy it on Blu. What, will I be able to count the stretch marks on Juno's belly? Ooh, count me in.

What I think will happen (and already seems to be heading that way) is that general DVDs will have less special features and the Blu discs will have more exclusives. DVD will wind up like VHS in that you're likely to get the movie and that's it. If they want to sell titles in Blu-Ray, this will probably need to happen. That, and a price decrease to compete with DVD, and I highly doubt that will happen. I don't know how much more it costs to make Blu-Ray discs as opposed to DVDs, but I can't imagine it to be that much.
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Postby Lord Voldemoo on Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:47 pm

Chairman Kaga wrote:
TheBaxter wrote:it won't happen nearly as fast as the transition from vinyl/cassette to CD, or VHS to DVD, because of the huge ownership base of DVD already; but it will happen eventually.

I agree with everything you said but this. Both of those format changes were very long. Much longer than I think Blu-Ray will take to usurp standard DVD.


I also think Bax underestimates the ownership base VHS had when DVD was introduced.

As noted above, making Blu-Ray backwards compatible will go a long way to assuring a reasonably speedy transition.

Comparing the DVD-Blu-Ray transition to VHS-DVD is difficult, though. The VHS-DVD shift was a fundamental transition in picture and sound quality. The increase in quality there was exponentially larger there than is the case here for most consumers. Plus there were other added "neat" features like the ability to skip forward in chapters, etc., as opposed to just hitting FF for half an hour.

VHS-DVD was a leap forward. DVD-Blu-Ray is a nice improvement.
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Postby TheBaxter on Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:14 pm

Lord Voldemoo wrote:
Chairman Kaga wrote:
TheBaxter wrote:it won't happen nearly as fast as the transition from vinyl/cassette to CD, or VHS to DVD, because of the huge ownership base of DVD already; but it will happen eventually.

I agree with everything you said but this. Both of those format changes were very long. Much longer than I think Blu-Ray will take to usurp standard DVD.


I also think Bax underestimates the ownership base VHS had when DVD was introduced.

As noted above, making Blu-Ray backwards compatible will go a long way to assuring a reasonably speedy transition.

Comparing the DVD-Blu-Ray transition to VHS-DVD is difficult, though. The VHS-DVD shift was a fundamental transition in picture and sound quality. The increase in quality there was exponentially larger there than is the case here for most consumers. Plus there were other added "neat" features like the ability to skip forward in chapters, etc., as opposed to just hitting FF for half an hour.

VHS-DVD was a leap forward. DVD-Blu-Ray is a nice improvement.


there's a big difference in that with VHS, very few people owned more than a few movies if any at all. they might've bought other things on VHS tapes, things that were made to sell especially on video, and they taped lots of stuff, including movies, but the average person didn't buy lots and lots of studio movies to keep. DVD changed that and now even the average joe typically owns a lot of movies.

i think the transition to BR will be slower because the average person is already more than satisfieed with DVD picture and sound quality, and they own a lot of movies on DVD that they won't ever feel a need to replace. the fact that BR players can play DVDs and even up-scale them will actually make it LESS likely that BR will replace DVD entirely, because a lot of people own lots of DVDs and won't feel a need to rush out and replace them.

when BR disc prices come down to DVD level, and BR players are as commonplace in people's homes as DVD players are now, then you won't see many new DVDs being produced. but people will still be watching their DVDs 20 years from now, far more than people watch VHS tapes or listen to vinyl LPs today.
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Postby Lord Voldemoo on Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:23 pm

TheBaxter wrote:
Lord Voldemoo wrote:
Chairman Kaga wrote:
TheBaxter wrote:it won't happen nearly as fast as the transition from vinyl/cassette to CD, or VHS to DVD, because of the huge ownership base of DVD already; but it will happen eventually.

I agree with everything you said but this. Both of those format changes were very long. Much longer than I think Blu-Ray will take to usurp standard DVD.


I also think Bax underestimates the ownership base VHS had when DVD was introduced.

As noted above, making Blu-Ray backwards compatible will go a long way to assuring a reasonably speedy transition.

Comparing the DVD-Blu-Ray transition to VHS-DVD is difficult, though. The VHS-DVD shift was a fundamental transition in picture and sound quality. The increase in quality there was exponentially larger there than is the case here for most consumers. Plus there were other added "neat" features like the ability to skip forward in chapters, etc., as opposed to just hitting FF for half an hour.

VHS-DVD was a leap forward. DVD-Blu-Ray is a nice improvement.


there's a big difference in that with VHS, very few people owned more than a few movies if any at all. they might've bought other things on VHS tapes, things that were made to sell especially on video, and they taped lots of stuff, including movies, but the average person didn't buy lots and lots of studio movies to keep. DVD changed that and now even the average joe typically owns a lot of movies.


Man, maybe I was not "average". I think i still have more VHS studio movies on tape in a box somewhere than I have DVDs. You may be right though, generally speaking.

Bax wrote:i think the transition to BR will be slower because the average person is already more than satisfieed with DVD picture and sound quality, and they own a lot of movies on DVD that they won't ever feel a need to replace. the fact that BR players can play DVDs and even up-scale them will actually make it LESS likely that BR will replace DVD entirely, because a lot of people own lots of DVDs and won't feel a need to rush out and replace them.


I tend to agree. As I said I think the "jump up" in quality is MUCH less significant than with VHS-DVD. Most consumers probably wont feel a need to repurchase owned DVDs on Blu-Ray except for maybe their favorites. But if they get the player, I would assume that future purchases will be in Blu-Ray format. Another way to incentivize this is to provide additional special features in Blu-Ray only...which I'm sure is part of the plan.

Bax wrote:when BR disc prices come down to DVD level, and BR players are as commonplace in people's homes as DVD players are now, then you won't see many new DVDs being produced. but people will still be watching their DVDs 20 years from now, far more than people watch VHS tapes or listen to vinyl LPs today.


Agreed.
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Postby stereosforgeeks on Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:29 pm

Lord Voldemoo wrote:
Bax wrote:when BR disc prices come down to DVD level, and BR players are as commonplace in people's homes as DVD players are now, then you won't see many new DVDs being produced. but people will still be watching their DVDs 20 years from now, far more than people watch VHS tapes or listen to vinyl LPs today.


Agreed.


You can pretty much get BluRay discs at normal DVD prices. The Host I just got for 20 bucks. 27 for the 5 disc set of blade runner. I mean we aren't at bargain basement prices here but the cost of a bluray and new release and significantly different.
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Postby Nordling on Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:31 pm

Lord Voldemoo wrote:
Bax wrote:
when BR disc prices come down to DVD level, and BR players are as commonplace in people's homes as DVD players are now, then you won't see many new DVDs being produced. but people will still be watching their DVDs 20 years from now, far more than people watch VHS tapes or listen to vinyl LPs today.



Agreed.

Not necessarily.
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Postby Lord Voldemoo on Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:37 pm

Nordling wrote:
Lord Voldemoo wrote:
Bax wrote:
when BR disc prices come down to DVD level, and BR players are as commonplace in people's homes as DVD players are now, then you won't see many new DVDs being produced. but people will still be watching their DVDs 20 years from now, far more than people watch VHS tapes or listen to vinyl LPs today.



Agreed.

Not necessarily.


ooh, that would be tragic. I'm gonna go home and vacuum pack all my dvds...
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Postby Nordling on Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:40 pm

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Postby stereosforgeeks on Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:40 pm

Lord Voldemoo wrote:
Nordling wrote:
Lord Voldemoo wrote:
Bax wrote:
when BR disc prices come down to DVD level, and BR players are as commonplace in people's homes as DVD players are now, then you won't see many new DVDs being produced. but people will still be watching their DVDs 20 years from now, far more than people watch VHS tapes or listen to vinyl LPs today.



Agreed.

Not necessarily.


ooh, that would be tragic. I'm gonna go home and vacuum pack all my dvds...


The actual media of cds is only supposed to have a shelf-life of 20 years or so. I think DVDs are around that too. That is a hell of a long timew though.
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Postby Evil Hobbit on Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:07 am

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Postby Peven on Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:30 am

TheBaxter wrote:
Lord Voldemoo wrote:
Chairman Kaga wrote:
TheBaxter wrote:it won't happen nearly as fast as the transition from vinyl/cassette to CD, or VHS to DVD, because of the huge ownership base of DVD already; but it will happen eventually.

I agree with everything you said but this. Both of those format changes were very long. Much longer than I think Blu-Ray will take to usurp standard DVD.


I also think Bax underestimates the ownership base VHS had when DVD was introduced.

As noted above, making Blu-Ray backwards compatible will go a long way to assuring a reasonably speedy transition.

Comparing the DVD-Blu-Ray transition to VHS-DVD is difficult, though. The VHS-DVD shift was a fundamental transition in picture and sound quality. The increase in quality there was exponentially larger there than is the case here for most consumers. Plus there were other added "neat" features like the ability to skip forward in chapters, etc., as opposed to just hitting FF for half an hour.

VHS-DVD was a leap forward. DVD-Blu-Ray is a nice improvement.


there's a big difference in that with VHS, very few people owned more than a few movies if any at all. they might've bought other things on VHS tapes, things that were made to sell especially on video, and they taped lots of stuff, including movies, but the average person didn't buy lots and lots of studio movies to keep. DVD changed that and now even the average joe typically owns a lot of movies.

i think the transition to BR will be slower because the average person is already more than satisfieed with DVD picture and sound quality, and they own a lot of movies on DVD that they won't ever feel a need to replace. the fact that BR players can play DVDs and even up-scale them will actually make it LESS likely that BR will replace DVD entirely, because a lot of people own lots of DVDs and won't feel a need to rush out and replace them.

when BR disc prices come down to DVD level, and BR players are as commonplace in people's homes as DVD players are now, then you won't see many new DVDs being produced. but people will still be watching their DVDs 20 years from now, far more than people watch VHS tapes or listen to vinyl LPs today.


Bax is on the money here, imo. at this time there is a big consumer move to flat screen hi-def TV's and so that expense is on the radar for many families in the near future. now, your average household is happy with the quality of digital picture and sound they get already, have a bunch of money already invested in their home library of DVD's which already look very good on the DVD players they already own, and instead of paying for a few extra pixels they would rather spend that extra $400 on getting an even bigger flat screen TV. really, the money saved by NOT getting a blu ray player will allow a family to move up from say a 37"-42" up to a 47" or 50". this is America where bigger is better, remember. :wink:
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