RogerRab wrote:Here’s some figures and number crunching for anyone who’s interested:
Serenity costs $39 million to make ($1 million under it’s $40 million budget) and while the advertising budget was never made public, people have estimated around $10 million. So overall the movie costs around $49 million for Universal to make. Now Serenity made a disappointing $25 million domestically and $13 million internationally for a total of $38 million at the box office. Now following the 55% rule, where studios get around 55% of the total of the box office, Universal only made $21 million from the box office.
So far, this sounds about right.
RogerRab wrote:Now there’s been no official sales figures for Serenity since it’s been released on DVD, only where it’s ranked on the sales charts. However, there have been sales announcements for other DVD’s above and bellow Serenity and people have managed to do some number crunching and worked out that Serenity sold from 1.104 to 1.605 million copies in the first week of release!
Perhaps.
RogerRab wrote:Some more number crunching was done to figure out Serenity sold around 825 thousand copies for January 2006. So by now it’s definitely over 2 million (possibly high as 2.5 million). Now studios generally take around $12 dollars profit per DVD, with the remaining split between the retailer and distributer. So that’s $24 million from the DVD sales, already more than the studio made from the box office. Meanwhile VideoBusiness.com tracked Serenity in bringing in over $9 million in DVD rentals. It has since fallen off the chart, but at the rate of it’s decline it’s safe to estimate that it manage to make $10 million before dropping too far.
This is where it loses me. I can see diehards buying the DVD in week 1 and spiking sales a bit. But to have less than a 25% drop the following week? The movie would have killed with those numbers! But that isn't the biggest deal to me. Sure, it's possible. It had a few good weeks before dropping off the Top 20 charts. But does Universal really see any money off of rentals? The chains buy their copies and that's the extent of the transaction, isn't it? Maybe I'm ignorant in this regard, but I didn't realize a popular DVD rental could make the studio money. At any rate, I doubt
Serenity is going to sell more than perhaps 3 million DVDs over the course of the next few years. Most people I've spoken to haven't even heard of the movie.
RogerRab wrote:Now the tv rights for Serenity were sold to NBC for a 3 movie package deal for $26 million. Now Serenity was hardly the top movie in the deal, so let’s low ball it and say Serenity only gets $5 million out of that deal.
So that’s $21 million from the box office, $24 million from DVD sales, $10 million from rentals, and around $5 million from tv rights for a total of $60 million. With Serenity costing $49 million to make and advertise it’s estimated that Universal has made $11 million off of the movie. Not nearly enough for Universal to invest in another movie, but there’s still profit to be made. The DVD has yet been released internationally and if the domestic sales are any indication, the DVD will make more money than the theatre box office. Especially since Universal International has included a lot of cool extras in the various international editions, the Australian version has a second disk of extras and comes in a cool metal tin, plus one retailer is offering free posters with the movie, another retailer offering Serenity mouse-mats and all sorts of other cool stuff. Meanwhile the DVD has sold well enough for the talked about Special Edition to be made available. The extras have already been produced for the Australian edition and ready to go, the only extra thing that Joss Whedon wants to do is add full cast audio commentary.
Meanwhile those calculations didn’t include anything from licensing which has been doing really well. The comic book, movie novelization, books, official t-shirts, RPG have all sold better than expected and more of all these items are on it’s way. There’s more money to be made out of this franchise yet and a sequel or possibily even a direct-to-DVD sequel might still yet happen."
Finally we've got some officialish news on how well Serenity has done. In terms of sequel likelihood, we've gotta remember that now Serenity is a brand name and it's associated with a quality movie (yes, really), and it's userbase is bigger now. Firefly is STILL (about 4 years on) in the Top 20 DVDs list at Amazon, and, surely, this can't be all we'll have. You can't take the sequel from us.
I'm glad that it looks as if Universal isn't going to lose money on the deal, and maybe even make a little something off of it. But the bottom line is that
Serenity/Firefly is niche. It always has been and it always will be. This isn't another Star Wars or Star Trek where there are millions of people in this country and abroad going crazy over this property and demanding more,
more, MORE!!! It's a mild number, at best. Another television series would probably have the same number of viewers as it did the first time around (it had an average 3.0 rating, or 3.1 million viewers). Comparatively,
Enterprise averaged a little less than 3 million viewers in its final season and was cancelled.
Firefly has a steady and vocal fan base, but they simply aren't large enough in number to warrant anything outside of cult treatment of this property. So we may get some comic books and trade novels, some t-shirts, and maybe even an RPG. Who knows? I think in the end, we'll be lucky to see a TV movie. As far as I can tell, the live action component of this franchise is dead. There will never be another movie. Fox has no interest in another series. Direct-to-DVD is a pipe dream.
People need to learn to let go. Enjoy what comes (if anything), but stop clinging to these sales numbers like they will actually mean anything. There will be no Big Damn Sequel! There will be no new life on TV! It's OVER!!! Deal with it.