The Official Box Office Thread

All the dirt. All the top secret stuff. Anything that has to do with the process of getting us to sit and watch something projected on the big screen.

Postby wheredidigo111 on Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:04 pm

Roybertito wrote:^Yeah, in third. Just like I said.

But no way in Hell is Garfield making top 5. No way. Hell, lucky it's making top 10, really.


I still like the Garfield srips and but I have to agree with you on that.
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Postby Leckomaniac on Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:35 pm

Well I think people are underestimating Nacho Libre. I have no doubt in my mind that it will take the top spot. The trailer for this movie plays extremely well in every theatre I go to. I am in college right now...and all the college kids I know are just absolutely buzzing about this film. They can't wait to see it.

I am just basing this off of what I have heard...but I expect big things from Nacho. I would say that Nacho can make somewhere between $35-38 and then CARS will take the second spot with $30-33.
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Postby Roybertito on Mon Jun 12, 2006 11:41 pm

^30 mil? For a Pixar film? That's a huge drop off. No way, there are still far too many people who haven't seen it.

It did come out 3 days ago, after all, it's gonna do well this weekend, even this week, I can only presume, as more schools go on summer vacation, more people are seeing movies during the week.

I'm seeing Superman Returns on the 27th at 10:00 in IMAX, actually. Because I can tell you now that's going to be the only way to truly appreciate that film is seeing that plane destroying its way at you in 3D.

Dude, Snakes on a Plane would be awesome in IMAX 3D.
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Postby RogueScribner on Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:49 am

Nah, Cars will take it for the second week, maybe NL will take second, but I'm not totally convinced.
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Postby Cpt Kirks 2pay on Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:01 am

Who thinks Superman will take down ROTS?
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Postby so sorry on Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:28 am

Cpt Kirks 2pay wrote:Who thinks Superman will take down ROTS?


not me.
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Postby Cpt Kirks 2pay on Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:32 am

Y?
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Postby so sorry on Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:42 am

I don't think Superman will do that much better than X3.
i'm not saying its going to do BAD business, but i don't see it as a sustainable summer blockbuster movie.
the leading man is a nobody, the leading lady isn't much better.

I don't want to quote numbers (because i dont have time to do the research), but i'd bet that it'll make more (domestically, not worldwide) than X3 but less than Spiderman I/II.

now a similar question: will Spiderman III topple ROTS?

that's a head scratcher....
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Postby magicmonkey on Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:53 am

I think it will do very well. Its hard for me to tell out here how the marketing machine is going, but I think it'll kick mucho @$$.
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Postby Cpt Kirks 2pay on Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:53 am

Spidey 2 made quite a lot less that Spidey 1. Actually I think that the Spiderman films are overearners at the BO. I think the films are great and all, but are quite plain, not really all that interesting and quite forgettable when it's all over. Nothing that really sticks in our emotions.

I wanted to gun down every fucker that made Spidey 1 make more money that AOTC.

Spiderman fans...




















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Postby wheredidigo111 on Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:58 am

Superman Returns is going to beat the hell out of X-Men the Last Stand. And don't matter if it has a big drop off. Do to the fact that X-Men the Last Stand had a 2ed week drop of 66.9% and then a 52.7 drop o it's 3rd week. That got to hurt some. The only thing that got it so much money was that bam over hiyed opening day. In fact comie to think of it that it. I maen you take out that opening day and leve it with the day after and the other two weeks that's not very good. In fact that sucks. And it droping more.
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Postby Cpt Kirks 2pay on Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:02 am

HAHAHAHAAA!!!!!!!!!
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Postby so sorry on Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:34 am

OK, so i did some quick research and here's what i found:

Spiderman I made $806 milliom Worldwide/403 domestic

Spiderman II made $783 milliom WW/373 D

X-Men III made $339 milliom WW/203D(still going, but it wont grow too much more, right?)

SW:ROTS made $848 milliom WW/380 D

So.... whenre do you think Superman will fall?

I'm sticking to my original thought: below spiderman numbers but above X-men numbers, and not quite ROTS numbers

(PS LOTR Trilogy kicks all their asses!)
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Postby wheredidigo111 on Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:40 am

Cpt Kirks 2pay wrote:HAHAHAHAAA!!!!!!!!!


I know a load of BS as to what I said about X3. Even if some say that it may not make as much money as X2 did. But other say it will only because of that over hiyed oening day. It's haerd believe that a piece of crap movie like this is going to make more money then the other two films did all because of one day. Fox is all happy about it. But Marvel... All news from Marvel has come to a dead silentes. In fact I can't find any news from Marvel or any kind of new news on what Marvel is planing after X3. I've look all over and I can't find anything. The only thing I can find is a rumer saying that Marvel is not happy.
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Postby Vegeta on Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:47 am

For the love of God, will you just let it go wheredidiseex3again112.
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Postby wheredidigo111 on Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:16 am

so sorry wrote:OK, so i did some quick research and here's what i found:

Spiderman I made $806 milliom Worldwide/403 domestic

Spiderman II made $783 milliom WW/373 D

X-Men III made $339 milliom WW/203D(still going, but it wont grow too much more, right?)

SW:ROTS made $848 milliom WW/380 D

So.... whenre do you think Superman will fall?

I'm sticking to my original thought: below spiderman numbers but above X-men numbers, and not quite ROTS numbers

(PS LOTR Trilogy kicks all their asses!)


I hate to be the one to say this but the Worldwide numbers most of the times mean nothing to the US or the US sells. I mean if you look ta the flop know as Batman & Robin it made a lot more Worldwide then it did in the us. in fact I think it beat Batman Returns and Batman Forever's numbers by a long shot. But still seen as a flop. As for it so called Worldwide selles it was only seen as it's saver. That was it. But most of the money went to making Batman Begins. And it's Worldwide numbers beat all the other Bat-movies. But still seen as not good enuf as the frist Tim Burton's Batman movie.
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Postby so sorry on Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:23 am

that's why i gave both worldwide AND domestic...
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Postby jgraphix on Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:28 am

wheredidigo111 wrote:
Cpt Kirks 2pay wrote:HAHAHAHAAA!!!!!!!!!


I know a load of BS as to what I said about X3. Even if some say that it may not make as much money as X2 did. But other say it will only because of that over hiyed oening day. It's haerd believe that a piece of crap movie like this is going to make more money then the other two films did all because of one day. Fox is all happy about it. But Marvel... All news from Marvel has come to a dead silentes. In fact I can't find any news from Marvel or any kind of new news on what Marvel is planing after X3. I've look all over and I can't find anything. The only thing I can find is a rumer saying that Marvel is not happy.


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Postby Roybertito on Wed Jun 14, 2006 5:50 pm

Superman'll be right below Spiderman I, suckling up to its mother.

Because, damn it, people like Stooperman.

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Postby MasterWhedon on Wed Jun 14, 2006 6:20 pm

wheredidigo111 wrote:I hate to be the one to say this but the Worldwide numbers most of the times mean nothing to the US or the US sells. I mean if you look ta the flop know as Batman & Robin it made a lot more Worldwide then it did in the us. in fact I think it beat Batman Returns and Batman Forever's numbers by a long shot. But still seen as a flop. As for it so called Worldwide selles it was only seen as it's saver. That was it. But most of the money went to making Batman Begins. And it's Worldwide numbers beat all the other Bat-movies. But still seen as not good enuf as the frist Tim Burton's Batman movie.

First, here are the Worldwide figures for the three Batman films you listed (Domestic totals in parentheses):

Batman Returns: $266,831,698 ($162 D)
Batman Forever: $336,531,112 ($184 D)
Batman & Robin: $238,207,122 ($107 D)

Batman & Robin beat neither of the previous films in Domestic, Foreign or combined Worldwide box office. And it's not like Warner Bros. set aside the proceeds from the Bat-films to make future Bat-films. What's closer to the truth is that Harry Potter, Ocean's Eleven and others bankrolled the picture (along with Legendary Pictures, which financed 50% of the film).

Secondly, your assertion that Foreign box office (I assume that's what you mean) "[means] nothing to the US" is sort of baffling. I've worked at a few different studios, and I've found the one constant they all care about is money. They don't give a shit what monetary unit you use to pay to see their movie, just that you do. It's all converted to US dollars in the end anyway, and money is still money.

Actually, many, many studios hedge their bets on risky blockbusters by pushing a big star to the international audience. Troy didn't fare to well in the US, but did gangbusters in the Foreign markets, marketed heavily on the bankability and appeal of Brad Pitt. Shit, even Poseidon (which tanked heavily in the US) will clean up and likely more than break even when Worlwide totals come in.

I saw a statistic some time ago that said the average blockbuster makes 60-75% of its revenue in Foreign markets. It's hardly an area studios neglect.
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Postby havocSchultz on Wed Jun 14, 2006 6:41 pm

wheredidigo111 wrote:Superman Returns is going to beat the hell out of X-Men the Last Stand. The only thing that got it so much money was that bam over hiyed opening day. In fact comie to think of it that it. I maen you take out that opening day and leve it with the day after and the other two weeks that's not very good. In fact that sucks. And it droping more.


ya!

and you take out just the money that ROTS made on each day of release and then it's domestic take is something like 12 bucks...


so - in the end - what I think I'm trying to say is that I'm sure if the studio bosses were like me - and I know that they very well could pretend to be - then any and all money made after the first day would be null and void and anonymously dropped off to an orphange charity for kittens or something and they would only go by opening day - because honestly - if you don't see it on first day - fuck it - don't bother...

they should just release all new movies into theatres on mondays - so that if you miss it - you can rent it on tuesday...
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Postby Leckomaniac on Sat Jun 17, 2006 1:48 pm

Alright well the friday estimates are in:

Nacho Libre - $11 million
Fast and the Furious - $9.25 million
Cars - $9.05 million
Lake House - $5.1 million
Break-Up - $3.215

You can view the rest here:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-06-16&p=.htm

The executives kept saying that CARS would do great this weekend because kids were out of school...well friday suggests something different. We will see how the rest of the weekend shapes up.
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Postby raasnio on Sat Jun 17, 2006 2:10 pm

wheredidigo111 wrote:
Cpt Kirks 2pay wrote:HAHAHAHAAA!!!!!!!!!


I know a load of BS as to what I said about X3. Even if some say that it may not make as much money as X2 did. But other say it will only because of that over hiyed oening day. It's haerd believe that a piece of crap movie like this is going to make more money then the other two films did all because of one day. Fox is all happy about it. But Marvel... All news from Marvel has come to a dead silentes. In fact I can't find any news from Marvel or any kind of new news on what Marvel is planing after X3. I've look all over and I can't find anything. The only thing I can find is a rumer saying that Marvel is not happy.


Your posts don't make any sense at all.

Translation for wheredidigo111:

Yor posds donte make inny scents at all.
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Postby RogueScribner on Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:08 pm

I've had a shitty internet connection for the past few days, so here is my late entry for the box office game (and I haven't read any posts or checked any other sites to see how the movies are doing thus far):

1. Cars - $35 million
2. Nacho Libre - $26 million
3. Tokyo Drift - $21 million
4. The Break Up - $15 million
5. X-Men 3 - $10 million

I fully expect The Omen to take a dive and I'm not sure if either The Lake House or Garfield will crack the top 5.
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Postby Leckomaniac on Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:19 pm

RogueScribner wrote:I've had a shitty internet connection for the past few days, so here is my late entry for the box office game (and I haven't read any posts or checked any other sites to see how the movies are doing thus far):

1. Cars - $35 million
2. Nacho Libre - $26 million
3. Tokyo Drift - $21 million
4. The Break Up - $15 million
5. X-Men 3 - $10 million

I fully expect The Omen to take a dive and I'm not sure if either The Lake House or Garfield will crack the top 5.


Well Rogue...you can check my post just two above yours to see what the friday estimates are.
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Postby Cpt Kirks 2pay on Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:21 pm

MI3 made something like $330,000 on Friday(69% drop from last Friday), meaning it'll probably make just a bit more than 1 million dollars over the weekend.

OK, I was wrong that it would NOT make it's US budget back (130 milly) but it won't make a lot more, and it won't make 140 milly.

So FUCK YOU TOM CRUISE!!!!!!!!!



(Still ain't seen the film yet.)
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Postby RogueScribner on Sat Jun 17, 2006 6:16 pm

It ain't all that. Just imagine a completely average episode of Alias and you've probably got it.
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Postby Roybertito on Sat Jun 17, 2006 8:13 pm

Leckomaniac wrote:Alright well the friday estimates are in:

Nacho Libre - $11 million
Fast and the Furious - $9.25 million
Cars - $9.05 million
Lake House - $5.1 million
Break-Up - $3.215

You can view the rest here:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-06-16&p=.htm

The executives kept saying that CARS would do great this weekend because kids were out of school...well friday suggests something different. We will see how the rest of the weekend shapes up.


You know, when I first read that, I got pissed off that FF3 did better than Cars. But then, I realized two things: 1) estimates; 2)BoxOfficeMojo. Everyone knows Guru pwns Mojo.
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Postby Leckomaniac on Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:34 pm

Roybertito wrote:^30 mil? For a Pixar film? That's a huge drop off. No way, there are still far too many people who haven't seen it.


Even if you don't like BoxOfficeMojo...the bottom line is that their estimates are never that off. For the most part it is +/- $1-2 million.

So with that in mind...$9 million for CARS on Friday...that would pave the way for a $30 million dollar 2nd weekend for CARS. I don't know why you thought that was a "huge drop off". 50% drop is a standard affair these days.
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Postby Kilgore on Sun Jun 18, 2006 12:04 am

I'm mostly disappinted that Lake House may make over five million bucks.

Keanu deserves to be punished to the 'direct to DVD' level. And if there's a 'Constantine' sequel, may god put Mickey Rourke in it.
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Postby RogueScribner on Sun Jun 18, 2006 1:00 am

Keanu needs to be punished? That's pretty harsh.
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Postby Kilgore on Sun Jun 18, 2006 1:01 am

If John Constantine is punished, then so too Keanu.
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Postby RogueScribner on Sun Jun 18, 2006 1:03 am

Meh, he's a'ight.
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Postby Kilgore on Sun Jun 18, 2006 1:04 am

The man can't act.

We all know that.

Accept it. He was still cool as NEO.
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Postby RogueScribner on Sun Jun 18, 2006 1:05 am

Did you see him in The Gift? I thought he actually displayed some range in that movie.
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Postby Kilgore on Sun Jun 18, 2006 1:08 am

I saw him in that movie he made after 'The Matrix' in which he was a serial killer who had a grudge and hard-on for James Spader.

Oh, and he sucked in that too.


That was enough.
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Postby Leckomaniac on Sun Jun 18, 2006 1:14 pm

Alright, the weekend estimates are in. It looks like Cars made a push and ended up taking the top spot after all. It looks like I overestimated the love for Nacho Libre.

1. Cars -$31 million
2. Nacho Libre - $27.5 million
3. Fast and the Furious - $24 million
4. Lake House - $13.6 million
5. Break-Up - $9.5 million

The rest of the top 10 can be viewed here:

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
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Postby Roybertito on Sun Jun 18, 2006 4:41 pm

50% drop off... f*ck... Ah well, at least FF3 takes 3rd where it belongs - but what the Hell is with Lake House being number 4? People suck.
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Postby Leckomaniac on Sun Jun 18, 2006 4:49 pm

Well now that this weekend's numbers are in...time to look towards next weekend.

Click is the only movie opening in WIDE release...with Waist Deep only opening on 1,000 screens.

I would venture to guess that Click will take away a great deal of business from Nacho and FF3.

I don't think there is any doubt that the Adam Sandler fueled comedy will take the #1 spot. He is a proven box office draw.

I would venutre to guess that Click will draw at least $45-50 million opening weekend. With Cars taking the #2 spot with $10-15 million.
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Postby RogueScribner on Sun Jun 18, 2006 6:13 pm

I think that sounds like a safe bet, Lecko.

Am I getting better at this or just lucky? My top three weren't that far off. The only I didn't account for was The Lake House cracking the top 5. Still, if you replace my number 5 pick with my number 4 and plunk TLH in the number 4 position, my top 5 would have been pretty damn accurate! :)



So the money I can predict, but the actual films making that money needs some work. ;)
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Postby havocSchultz on Mon Jun 19, 2006 8:24 am

havocSchultz wrote:next weekend -

1) cars - $39.56 million (which would be about a 37 % drop)

2) nacho libre - $34.5 million (Cars will take some of the audience away - that's why i think these 2 could split the audience and possibly switch places)

3) F&TF:Tokyo Drift: $25.7 million (won't open as big as the 1st 2 cause you don't have vin diesel - or even paul walker)

4) Garfield 2 - $18.8 million

5) The Break-up - $11.48 million (about 44% off)

6) X3 - $8.42 (about another 46% drop)

7) The Omen - $6.05 million (about a 61% drop)


which would give the top 7 films at least about $144.51 million... this past weekend the Top 10 films grossed about $146.4 million... so who knows...


boxofficeguru wrote:1 Cars $ 31,181,000 $ 60,119,509 -48.1%
2 Nacho Libre 27,513,000
3 The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift
4 The Lake House 13,665,000
5 The Break-Up 9,500,000 20,325,790 -53.3%
6 Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties 7,200,000
7 X-Men: The Last Stand 7,150,000 16,078,578 -55.5%
8 The Omen 5,350,000 16,026,496 -66.6%
9 The Da Vinci Code 5,000,000 10,443,347 -52.1%
10 Over the Hedge 4,046,000 -60.4%



so i pretty much over-estimated them for the most part...and i forgot about the lake house apparentely...

oh well - anybody else find it weird/scary/interesting/just a coincidence that The Omen dropped 66.6% this weekend...
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Postby havocSchultz on Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:44 am

wheredidigo111 wrote:man X-Men the Last Stand droped off really big agen.


man ya man it really sucks man that it's the biggest of the series as well man i mean x-men 3 man...
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Postby Roybertito on Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:17 pm

I'm happy as long as Garfield isn't in the top 5.

Roy's Super Happy Predictions:

Garfield is out of theatres by next week, and on DVD by July 4. Garfield 3: Scoop Away Camp, keeping with the theme of cat-based parodies of old stories (turns out Nermal has a penis, is the killer), will be released in the theatres by Thanksgiving Weekend, on DVD by the First Day of Christmas (12 days before).

Better predictions coming later.
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Postby wheredidigo111 on Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:26 pm

I find it funny that I got it right on GARFIELD: A TAIL OF TWO KITTIES and THE FAST AND THE FURIOUS: TOKYO DRIFT. I told you they where dead befor they started.

By the way if you want shity reviews or just somthing that will make you laugh till you cry go to http://www.mrcranky.com/
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Postby Leckomaniac on Tue Jun 20, 2006 11:14 pm

You think that you were the ONLY one who predicted that? I don't think there was a single member of the Zone that didn't see that coming. Those movies never stood a CHANCE in a weekend that crowded.

It will be interesting to see how well CLICK does at the box office. Adam Sandler is a natural draw, but this movie doesn't seem to have the appeal that his other movies have had. I don't think there is any doubt it will pull in $40 million...but then again you just never know with Nacho Libre still in the mix.

I mean this movie has already shown that it is going to venture into the "feel good family" film that I figured it would be. Will that help bring in families? Will it alienate the teen market? I just don't know. People didn't really flock to see Spanglish.
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Postby havocSchultz on Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:10 am

I remember the last time I died in the water...

I think it was the time I made $24 million over 3 days...
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Postby Leckomaniac on Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:16 am

havocSchultz wrote:I remember the last time I died in the water...

I think it was the time I made $24 million over 3 days...


Yeah, I will say that $24 million was a lot more than I expected the movie to make. But I think you have to look at it in comparison to the first two films which grossed $40 and $50 million on their respective opening weekends.

I wouldn't go so far as to categorize it as being "dead in the water" as wheredidmymannersgo1111 did. But I will say that this movie obviously suffered from the overcrowded weekend. I think it could have pulled in $30-35 million had it opened on a different weekend.
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Postby buster00 on Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:04 am

wheredidigo111 wrote:man X-Men the Last Stand droped off really big agen.


Highest grossing film of 2006 so far. Eat it up, haterator.



Gonna agree with Lecko's trepidation about Click. This doesn't look to me like the kind of film to draw out Sandler's fans in droves. I've been wrong PLENTY before in this topic, but I'm gonna bet on Cars to JUST BARELY hold onto the lead this weekend.

Here's my guess:

1. Cars $29 mil.
2. Click $28 mil.
3. Nacho Libre $18 mil.
4. Tokyo Drift $13 mil.
5. The Lake House $9 mil.
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Postby Roybertito on Wed Jun 21, 2006 9:30 am

^Judging by the fact that no one is talking about the movie, the commercials are unfunny, and the only draws are Adam Sandler (Spanglish) and Christopher Walken (...overexposed like Adam West on television... originally funny but now losing its draw), I don't think Click is making it much higher than number 3, honestly, getting into that spot at 13 million right above Tokyo Drift's 10 million I predict it earning. However, Cars will get the nominal 30-33 million, just beating out Nacho Libre's 20 million and completely edging out The Lake House's 6 million. Here's the chart.

ROY'S BITCHIN' PREDICTIONS: I'M GOING TO LEGOLAND INSTEAD OF SEEING CLICK ON FRIDAY EDITON (LEGOLAND F*CKING OWNS.... SORRY, WALKEN)

1. Cars $30-35 million
2. Nacho Libre $15-20 million
3. Click $10-15 million
4. Tokyo Daft $8-10 million
5. Keanu Reaves Sucks $3-6 million
-Roy, Animation Addict

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Postby wheredidigo111 on Wed Jun 21, 2006 9:48 am

Leckomaniac wrote:You think that you were the ONLY one who predicted that? I don't think there was a single member of the Zone that didn't see that coming. Those movies never stood a CHANCE in a weekend that crowded.

It will be interesting to see how well CLICK does at the box office. Adam Sandler is a natural draw, but this movie doesn't seem to have the appeal that his other movies have had. I don't think there is any doubt it will pull in $40 million...but then again you just never know with Nacho Libre still in the mix.

I mean this movie has already shown that it is going to venture into the "feel good family" film that I figured it would be. Will that help bring in families? Will it alienate the teen market? I just don't know. People didn't really flock to see Spanglish.


Well let's see Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties your right we all know that it was dead befor it stated. Yea, I know havocSchultz told me all about it but like Urban Legends and Urban Legends: Final Cut, Garfield went the same dam way. As for continue to milk it until it stops making money... You do know the it stoped after the frst movie started. Meanig there is no money to milk anymore. So making a sequel was pointless. I don't know maybe they think that it would be the next Star Trek 2. But beating a dead horse is well beating a dead horse. Dead is dead. Let it go.

But The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift has the same prombem a lot of movies have. Like comic book movies do, meaning Superman, Batman. The frst Fast and the Furious comes out and it's a hit. Then comes 2 Fast 2 Furious it makes a much. Hell was I found out it made more Just like Batman Forever and Spuerman 3 did. Even that it almost makes it over the last movie did, But the top heads at Hollywood decides to make a sequel thinking it will make more money. Look even if 2 Fast 2 Furious made more money then Fast and the Furious. The fans and the critic and even the movie-goers hated it. The only reson it made so much money was that it was over hiyed from the last movie. And then thay make a sequel that will do notting more then bomb in theters like The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift, Spuerman 4, and Batman & Robin. But I guess the big heads in Hollywood will never learn that.

As for Nacho Libre. Well I thought it number one to. Din't think Cars would keep it's number one spot. But I think Click will rip it down.
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